Use of weather and climate information for agricultural planning and decision making

Landholders have long used weather and climate information, based on experience and intuition, for planning and decision making on land or crop management. Over recent times, the availability of data bases of historical climatic information and the development of predictive tools ranging from correlation analysis to computer simulation models have made the climatic information useful to a much wider range of stakeholders. This paper provides an overview of the elements of the decision-making process, and how these elements affect the adoption of, and benefits arising from, the decision. We examine both the technical and social barriers to decision-making. Major technical issues are lack of availability of data and lack of appropriate predictive tools. At the farm scale, the major social issue in decisionmaking is risk aversion due to personality or capacity to take risk, particularly in the case of resource poor farmers. Large farmers with low risk aversion and significant capital assets can take high risks for high and infrequent returns. At societal and larger scales, social issues and political responses become far more important. Elements in decision-making are illustrated via a number of Case Studies on the use of weather and climate predictions at different geographic scales (farm, region, national, and global) and time scales (days, months, years). The applications of short, medium and long-range forecasts at farm, regional and national levels is demonstrated drawing from our own research. These include applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting (SCF) based on El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for irrigation, crop and pasture management as part of a project funded by the Australian Centre for International Agricultural research (ACIAR). Other Case Studies examine the development of systems for forecasting national crop yields, requirements for commodity imports, and crop insurance schemes. The paper concludes by listing some initiatives that can improve the use of weather and climate data in agricultural planning and decision making in Developing Countries. These include improvements in the collection of meteorological data, development of locally applicable predictive tools, formation of groups and cooperatives that can make participative decisions to spread the risks associated with the decision-making, and greater involvement of Government to integrate the national research and application effort.